Post by Adam Awesome on Sept 14, 2013 6:48:08 GMT -5
2013/2014 Gubernatorial Election Predictions:
Current Governorship Composition: 30 Republicans/20 Democrats
Predicted Governorship Composition after Midterms: 25 Republicans/25 Democrats (Net gain +5 (D) )
Light red indicates a lean Democratic state (Dark red safe Democratic). Light blue indicates a lean Republican state (Dark blue safe Republican). Gray indicates a very close 2-3 point margin that's too close to call and white are where no gubernatorial elections are taking place in 2014.
New Jersey Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Chris Christie (R) - Safe R hold (The fatass, homophobic bitch will unfortunately succeed thanks to Obama 2012 voters)
Virginia Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Terry McAuliffe) - Democratic pickup
* means pickup by another party where the incumbent loses re-election and ^ is a pickup by another party that's an open seat from a retiring or term-limited Governor.
18 Democratic wins, 18 Republican wins, 14 non-contested states for Governor
And then this is the amount of confidence in each state.
2014 gubernatorial predictions: Aftermath - 25 Democratic Governors and 25 Republican Governors (6 Dem. pickups and 1 Repub. pickup; ignore Rhode Island which now would be considered a Democratic hold since the current incumbent, Lincoln Chafee, recently became a Democrat, but dropped out of the race for Governor of RI in 2014). Also, in this case red is for the Democrats and blue is for the Republicans because the political site I'm on that generates their maps still uses the old-fashioned pre-2000 colors. Virginia will also go red for the Democrats in November 2013 so by January of 2015, the Democrats I'm predicting will get 6 pickups in the states of Virginia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maine, and Florida and the Republicans 1 in the great state of Arkansas.
Alabama Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Robert J. Bentley (R) - Safe R hold
Alaska Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Sean Parnell (R) - Safe R hold
Arizona Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Republican candidate (Ken Bennett) - Republican hold (TOSSUP)
Arkansas Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Republican candidate (Asa Hutchinson) - Republican pickup (TOSSUP)
California Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Jerry Brown (D) - Safe D hold
Colorado Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) - Leans D
Connecticut Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Dan Malloy (D) - Leans D
Florida Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Charlie Crist) - Democratic pickup (TOSSUP)
Georgia Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Nathan Deal (R) - Safe R hold (Sorry Mark, but polling is showing Deal is leading by double digits over the Democrats)
Hawaii Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) - Safe D hold
Idaho Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Butch Otter (R) - Safe R hold
Illinois Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Pat Quinn (D) - Democratic hold (TOSSUP)
Iowa Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Terry Branstad (R) - Likely R hold
Kansas Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Sam Brownback (R) - Leans R
Maine Margin of Victory: 30% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Mike Michaud) - Democratic pickup (TOSSUP)
Maryland Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Anthony Brown) - Likely D hold
Massachusetts Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (TBD) - Likely D hold
Michigan Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Mark Schauer) - Democratic pickup (TOSSUP)
Minnesota Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Mark Dayton (D) - Safe D hold
Nebraska Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for the Republican candidate (TBD) - Safe R hold
Nevada Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) - Likely R hold
New Hampshire Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) - Safe D hold
New Mexico Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Susana Martinez (R) - Likely R hold
New York Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) - Safe D hold
Ohio Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Ed FitzGerald) - Democratic pickup (PURE TOSSUP)
Oklahoma Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Mary Fallin (R) - Safe R hold
Oregon Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) - Safe D hold
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Allyson Schwartz) - Democratic pickup (TOSSUP)
Rhode Island Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (TBD) - Likely D hold
South Carolina Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Nikki Haley (R) - Republican hold (TOSSUP)
South Dakota Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) - Safe R hold
Tennessee Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Bill Haslam (R) - Safe R hold
Texas Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Republican candidate (Greg Abbott) - Safe R hold
Vermont Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) - Safe D hold
Wisconsin Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Scott Walker (R) - Leans R
Wyoming Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Matt Mead (R) - Safe R hold (Surprise, surprise...)
2014 U.S. Senate Election Predictions
Current Senate Composition: 54 Democrats/46 Republicans
Predicted Senate Composition after Midterms: 53 Democrats/47 Republicans (Net gain +1 (R), Democrats retain control of the Senate under Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid)
19 Democratic wins, 16 Republican wins (2 of which from SC) and 16 states with no Senate elections in 2014.
Red here also for the Democrats and blue for the Republicans. Counting the Democratic pickup in New Jersey come the 2013 election for Sen. Frank Lautenberg's old seat, I'm predicting the Republicans will have a net gain of 1 seat after the 2014 midterms. Democrats will gain 2 pickups in New Jersey and Georgia and Republicans will gain 3 pickups in West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana. So after the 2014 elections, the Democrats will have about 53 seats and the Republicans 47 seats meaning it will all stay the same under a Democratic controlled U.S. Senate led by Harry Reid.
The confidence map. At this point, the states of Kentucky, Georgia, Montana, and Arkansas are all tossup races. The states in light red: Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Alaska, New Hampshire, and Louisiana all lean Democratic. So not counting tossups even though I predicted these 4, there will basically be a guaranteed 17 Democratic wins in the U.S. Senate in 2014 to the Republican guarantee of 14.
Alabama Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) - Safe R hold
Alaska Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Sen. Mark Begich (D) - Leans D
Arkansas Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Sen. Mark Pryor (D) - Democratic hold (TOSSUP) (THIS will be the Senate race of 2014 to watch closely, but after Election 2014, I'm predicting it stays in Democratic hands, no matter how much I hate Pryor)
Colorado Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Mark Udall (D) - Likely D hold
Delaware Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Chris Coons (D) - Safe D hold
Georgia Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Michelle Nunn) - Democratic pickup (TOSSUP) (The GOP primary base is so damn bad that Nunn is fairing very good in the polls for a Republican state)
Hawaii (Special Election) Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Sen. Brian Schatz - Safe D hold
Idaho Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Sen. Jim Risch (R) - Safe R hold
Illinois Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Sen. Dick Durbin (D) - Safe D hold
Iowa Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Bruce Braley) - Likely D hold
Kansas Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Pat Roberts (R) - Safe R hold
Kentucky Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) - Republican hold (TOSSUP) (Grimes is leading by a point, but McConnell always scurries out with a win somehow)
Louisiana Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) - Likely D hold
Maine Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Sen. Susan Collins (R) - Safe R hold
Massachusetts Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Ed Markey (D) - Safe D hold
Michigan Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Gary Peters) - Likely D hold
Minnesota Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Al Franken (D) - Likely D hold
Mississippi Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Sen. Thad Cochran (R) - Safe R hold (if he runs; if he doesn't - leans R)
Montana Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Republican candidate (TBD) - Republican pickup (TOSSUP/Lean R) (It's all about who runs at this point)
Nebraska Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for the Republican candidate (TBD) - Likely R hold
New Hampshire Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) - Likely D hold
New Jersey Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for soon to be Sen. Cory Booker (D) - Safe D hold (A Democratic pickup in the Special October 2013 Election)
New Mexico Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Sen. Tom Udall (D) - Safe D hold
North Carolina Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Kay Hagan (D) - Likely D hold
Oklahoma Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. James Inhofe (R) - Safe R hold
Oregon Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) - Likely D hold
Rhode Island Margin of Victory: 70% or greater for Sen. Jack Reed (D) - Safe D hold
South Carolina Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) - Safe R hold (Whether he gets primaried or not)
South Carolina (Special Election) Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Sen. Tim Scott (R) - Safe R hold
South Dakota Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Republican candidate (Mike Rounds) - (Likely) Republican pickup
Tennessee Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) - Safe R hold (Again, whether he gets primaried or not)
Texas Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. John Cornyn (R) - Safe R hold
Virginia Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Mark Warner (D) - Safe D hold
West Virginia Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Republican candidate (Shelley Moore Capito) - (Likely) Republican pickup
Wyoming Margin of Victory: 70% or greater for Sen. Mike Enzi (R) - Safe R hold (Whole different story if Liz Cheney beats him in the GOP primary)
2014 U.S. House of Representatives Elections
Current House of Representatives Composition: 234 Republicans/201 Democrats
Predicted House Composition after Midterms: 229 Republicans/206 Democrats (Net gain +5 (D), Republicans retain control of the House under Speaker John Boehner)
There will be several factors that will result in the Republicans losing seats in the House even though midterms tend to favor the Republican Party with a higher, white turnout. They've failed to pass immigration reform (attack on Latino's), they failed to keep student loan rates constant (attack on young students), basically doing nothing but trying to repeal Obamacare, and oh yeah! They will now probably shut down the federal government if the House does not pass and get to President Obama's desk a budget bill before the September 30th deadline. And this might not only make Republicans a lot more vulnerable in places Boehner and Cantor thought they wouldn't have to work on to make sure they hold onto those seats, but there are a lot of House Democrats who could end up holding on in very vulnerable states.
Currently, the Republican controlled House of Representatives is made up of 233 House Republicans (1 Repub. vacancy in Alabama which will very likely be a hold) and 200 House Democrats (Also 1 Dem. vacancy in Massachusetts which will be a hold for sure). This means there would need to be a net gain of 17 seats by the Democratic Party to take back the House of Representatives in the 2014 midterms. It's very hard to do given the gerrymandered districts and the high senior citizen/white male turnout and low minority turnout in midterm elections.
The above map is of the 2012 House of Representatives results.
Now from this, it's clear incumbent Democrats running for re-election next year in red states like Utah, West Virginia, Arizona, or Georgia are going to face uphill battles, but the House Republicans are F'ing up so bad that the likes of Rep. Barrow (D) in Georgia or Rep. Gallego (D) in Texas could pull out victories. Currently, looking at the map, the only vulnerable Republicans come from the big states like New York or California, although that's subject to change. Obviously since there's no way I'll go over all 435 House races next year especially since much more than half of them are already safe, I'll focus only on the ones that might be likely to flip to the opposing party.
HOWEVER, this is only for current predictions and if the House Republicans ultimately do shut down the government like Gingrich did in 1995, the GOP majority in the House of Representatives is in big, big trouble.
Arizona 2nd CD Prediction: Incumbent Ron Barber (D) falls to Republican, Martha McSally, in a +3 (R) favoring district - Republican pickup
California 21st CD Prediction: Incumbent David Valadao (R) falls to his unannounced Democratic candidate in a +2 (D) favoring district - Democratic pickup
California 31st CD Prediction: Incumbent Gary Miller (R) will fall to Democrat, Pete Aguilar, in a +5 (D) favoring district - Democratic pickup
Colorado 6th CD Prediction: Incumbent Mike Coffman (R) will fall to Democrat, Andrew Romanoff, in a +1 (D) favoring district including the city of Aurora - Democratic pickup
Illinois 13th CD Prediction: Incumbent Rodney Davis (R) will fall to Democrat, Ann Callis, in an even district - Democratic pickup
Florida 18th CD Prediction: Incumbent Patrick Murphy (D) will fall to his unannounced Republican challenger in a +3 (R) favoring district formerly represented by Allen West (R) - Republican pickup
Nevada 3rd CD Prediction: Incumbent Joe Heck (R) will fall to Democrat, Erin Bilbray, in an even district - Democratic pickup
New Hampshire 1st CD Prediction: Incumbent Carol Shea-Porter will fall to her unannounced Republican challenger in a +1 (R) favoring district - Republican pickup
New York 11th CD Prediction: Incumbent Michael Grimm (R) will fall to Democrat, Domenic Recchia, in a +2 (R) favoring district - Democratic pickup
New York 19th CD Prediction: Incumbent Chris Gibson (R) will fall to Democrat, Sean Eldridge, in a +1 (D) favoring district - Democratic pickup
Ohio 14th CD Prediction: Incumbent David Joyce (R) will fall to Democrat, Michael Wager, in a +4 (R) favoring district - Democratic pickup
Pennsylvania 8th CD Prediction: Incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick (R) will fall to Democrat, Kevin Strouse, in a +1 (R) favoring district - Democratic pickup
Utah 4th CD Prediction: Incumbent Jim Matheson (D) will fall to Republican, Mia Love, in a +16 (R) favoring district - Republican pickup
Current Governorship Composition: 30 Republicans/20 Democrats
Predicted Governorship Composition after Midterms: 25 Republicans/25 Democrats (Net gain +5 (D) )
Light red indicates a lean Democratic state (Dark red safe Democratic). Light blue indicates a lean Republican state (Dark blue safe Republican). Gray indicates a very close 2-3 point margin that's too close to call and white are where no gubernatorial elections are taking place in 2014.
New Jersey Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Chris Christie (R) - Safe R hold (The fatass, homophobic bitch will unfortunately succeed thanks to Obama 2012 voters)
Virginia Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Terry McAuliffe) - Democratic pickup
* means pickup by another party where the incumbent loses re-election and ^ is a pickup by another party that's an open seat from a retiring or term-limited Governor.
18 Democratic wins, 18 Republican wins, 14 non-contested states for Governor
And then this is the amount of confidence in each state.
2014 gubernatorial predictions: Aftermath - 25 Democratic Governors and 25 Republican Governors (6 Dem. pickups and 1 Repub. pickup; ignore Rhode Island which now would be considered a Democratic hold since the current incumbent, Lincoln Chafee, recently became a Democrat, but dropped out of the race for Governor of RI in 2014). Also, in this case red is for the Democrats and blue is for the Republicans because the political site I'm on that generates their maps still uses the old-fashioned pre-2000 colors. Virginia will also go red for the Democrats in November 2013 so by January of 2015, the Democrats I'm predicting will get 6 pickups in the states of Virginia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maine, and Florida and the Republicans 1 in the great state of Arkansas.
Alabama Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Robert J. Bentley (R) - Safe R hold
Alaska Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Sean Parnell (R) - Safe R hold
Arizona Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Republican candidate (Ken Bennett) - Republican hold (TOSSUP)
Arkansas Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Republican candidate (Asa Hutchinson) - Republican pickup (TOSSUP)
California Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Jerry Brown (D) - Safe D hold
Colorado Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) - Leans D
Connecticut Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Dan Malloy (D) - Leans D
Florida Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Charlie Crist) - Democratic pickup (TOSSUP)
Georgia Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Nathan Deal (R) - Safe R hold (Sorry Mark, but polling is showing Deal is leading by double digits over the Democrats)
Hawaii Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) - Safe D hold
Idaho Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Butch Otter (R) - Safe R hold
Illinois Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Pat Quinn (D) - Democratic hold (TOSSUP)
Iowa Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Terry Branstad (R) - Likely R hold
Kansas Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Sam Brownback (R) - Leans R
Maine Margin of Victory: 30% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Mike Michaud) - Democratic pickup (TOSSUP)
Maryland Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Anthony Brown) - Likely D hold
Massachusetts Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (TBD) - Likely D hold
Michigan Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Mark Schauer) - Democratic pickup (TOSSUP)
Minnesota Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Mark Dayton (D) - Safe D hold
Nebraska Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for the Republican candidate (TBD) - Safe R hold
Nevada Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) - Likely R hold
New Hampshire Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) - Safe D hold
New Mexico Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Susana Martinez (R) - Likely R hold
New York Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) - Safe D hold
Ohio Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Ed FitzGerald) - Democratic pickup (PURE TOSSUP)
Oklahoma Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Mary Fallin (R) - Safe R hold
Oregon Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) - Safe D hold
Pennsylvania Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Allyson Schwartz) - Democratic pickup (TOSSUP)
Rhode Island Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (TBD) - Likely D hold
South Carolina Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Gov. Nikki Haley (R) - Republican hold (TOSSUP)
South Dakota Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) - Safe R hold
Tennessee Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Bill Haslam (R) - Safe R hold
Texas Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Republican candidate (Greg Abbott) - Safe R hold
Vermont Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) - Safe D hold
Wisconsin Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Gov. Scott Walker (R) - Leans R
Wyoming Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Gov. Matt Mead (R) - Safe R hold (Surprise, surprise...)
2014 U.S. Senate Election Predictions
Current Senate Composition: 54 Democrats/46 Republicans
Predicted Senate Composition after Midterms: 53 Democrats/47 Republicans (Net gain +1 (R), Democrats retain control of the Senate under Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid)
19 Democratic wins, 16 Republican wins (2 of which from SC) and 16 states with no Senate elections in 2014.
Red here also for the Democrats and blue for the Republicans. Counting the Democratic pickup in New Jersey come the 2013 election for Sen. Frank Lautenberg's old seat, I'm predicting the Republicans will have a net gain of 1 seat after the 2014 midterms. Democrats will gain 2 pickups in New Jersey and Georgia and Republicans will gain 3 pickups in West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana. So after the 2014 elections, the Democrats will have about 53 seats and the Republicans 47 seats meaning it will all stay the same under a Democratic controlled U.S. Senate led by Harry Reid.
The confidence map. At this point, the states of Kentucky, Georgia, Montana, and Arkansas are all tossup races. The states in light red: Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Alaska, New Hampshire, and Louisiana all lean Democratic. So not counting tossups even though I predicted these 4, there will basically be a guaranteed 17 Democratic wins in the U.S. Senate in 2014 to the Republican guarantee of 14.
Alabama Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) - Safe R hold
Alaska Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Sen. Mark Begich (D) - Leans D
Arkansas Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Sen. Mark Pryor (D) - Democratic hold (TOSSUP) (THIS will be the Senate race of 2014 to watch closely, but after Election 2014, I'm predicting it stays in Democratic hands, no matter how much I hate Pryor)
Colorado Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Mark Udall (D) - Likely D hold
Delaware Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Chris Coons (D) - Safe D hold
Georgia Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Michelle Nunn) - Democratic pickup (TOSSUP) (The GOP primary base is so damn bad that Nunn is fairing very good in the polls for a Republican state)
Hawaii (Special Election) Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Sen. Brian Schatz - Safe D hold
Idaho Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Sen. Jim Risch (R) - Safe R hold
Illinois Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Sen. Dick Durbin (D) - Safe D hold
Iowa Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Bruce Braley) - Likely D hold
Kansas Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Pat Roberts (R) - Safe R hold
Kentucky Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) - Republican hold (TOSSUP) (Grimes is leading by a point, but McConnell always scurries out with a win somehow)
Louisiana Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) - Likely D hold
Maine Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Sen. Susan Collins (R) - Safe R hold
Massachusetts Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Ed Markey (D) - Safe D hold
Michigan Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for the Democratic candidate (Gary Peters) - Likely D hold
Minnesota Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Al Franken (D) - Likely D hold
Mississippi Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Sen. Thad Cochran (R) - Safe R hold (if he runs; if he doesn't - leans R)
Montana Margin of Victory: 40% or greater for the Republican candidate (TBD) - Republican pickup (TOSSUP/Lean R) (It's all about who runs at this point)
Nebraska Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for the Republican candidate (TBD) - Likely R hold
New Hampshire Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) - Likely D hold
New Jersey Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for soon to be Sen. Cory Booker (D) - Safe D hold (A Democratic pickup in the Special October 2013 Election)
New Mexico Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Sen. Tom Udall (D) - Safe D hold
North Carolina Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Kay Hagan (D) - Likely D hold
Oklahoma Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. James Inhofe (R) - Safe R hold
Oregon Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) - Likely D hold
Rhode Island Margin of Victory: 70% or greater for Sen. Jack Reed (D) - Safe D hold
South Carolina Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) - Safe R hold (Whether he gets primaried or not)
South Carolina (Special Election) Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Sen. Tim Scott (R) - Safe R hold
South Dakota Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Republican candidate (Mike Rounds) - (Likely) Republican pickup
Tennessee Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) - Safe R hold (Again, whether he gets primaried or not)
Texas Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. John Cornyn (R) - Safe R hold
Virginia Margin of Victory: 50% or greater for Sen. Mark Warner (D) - Safe D hold
West Virginia Margin of Victory: 60% or greater for Republican candidate (Shelley Moore Capito) - (Likely) Republican pickup
Wyoming Margin of Victory: 70% or greater for Sen. Mike Enzi (R) - Safe R hold (Whole different story if Liz Cheney beats him in the GOP primary)
2014 U.S. House of Representatives Elections
Current House of Representatives Composition: 234 Republicans/201 Democrats
Predicted House Composition after Midterms: 229 Republicans/206 Democrats (Net gain +5 (D), Republicans retain control of the House under Speaker John Boehner)
There will be several factors that will result in the Republicans losing seats in the House even though midterms tend to favor the Republican Party with a higher, white turnout. They've failed to pass immigration reform (attack on Latino's), they failed to keep student loan rates constant (attack on young students), basically doing nothing but trying to repeal Obamacare, and oh yeah! They will now probably shut down the federal government if the House does not pass and get to President Obama's desk a budget bill before the September 30th deadline. And this might not only make Republicans a lot more vulnerable in places Boehner and Cantor thought they wouldn't have to work on to make sure they hold onto those seats, but there are a lot of House Democrats who could end up holding on in very vulnerable states.
Currently, the Republican controlled House of Representatives is made up of 233 House Republicans (1 Repub. vacancy in Alabama which will very likely be a hold) and 200 House Democrats (Also 1 Dem. vacancy in Massachusetts which will be a hold for sure). This means there would need to be a net gain of 17 seats by the Democratic Party to take back the House of Representatives in the 2014 midterms. It's very hard to do given the gerrymandered districts and the high senior citizen/white male turnout and low minority turnout in midterm elections.
The above map is of the 2012 House of Representatives results.
Now from this, it's clear incumbent Democrats running for re-election next year in red states like Utah, West Virginia, Arizona, or Georgia are going to face uphill battles, but the House Republicans are F'ing up so bad that the likes of Rep. Barrow (D) in Georgia or Rep. Gallego (D) in Texas could pull out victories. Currently, looking at the map, the only vulnerable Republicans come from the big states like New York or California, although that's subject to change. Obviously since there's no way I'll go over all 435 House races next year especially since much more than half of them are already safe, I'll focus only on the ones that might be likely to flip to the opposing party.
HOWEVER, this is only for current predictions and if the House Republicans ultimately do shut down the government like Gingrich did in 1995, the GOP majority in the House of Representatives is in big, big trouble.
Arizona 2nd CD Prediction: Incumbent Ron Barber (D) falls to Republican, Martha McSally, in a +3 (R) favoring district - Republican pickup
California 21st CD Prediction: Incumbent David Valadao (R) falls to his unannounced Democratic candidate in a +2 (D) favoring district - Democratic pickup
California 31st CD Prediction: Incumbent Gary Miller (R) will fall to Democrat, Pete Aguilar, in a +5 (D) favoring district - Democratic pickup
Colorado 6th CD Prediction: Incumbent Mike Coffman (R) will fall to Democrat, Andrew Romanoff, in a +1 (D) favoring district including the city of Aurora - Democratic pickup
Illinois 13th CD Prediction: Incumbent Rodney Davis (R) will fall to Democrat, Ann Callis, in an even district - Democratic pickup
Florida 18th CD Prediction: Incumbent Patrick Murphy (D) will fall to his unannounced Republican challenger in a +3 (R) favoring district formerly represented by Allen West (R) - Republican pickup
Nevada 3rd CD Prediction: Incumbent Joe Heck (R) will fall to Democrat, Erin Bilbray, in an even district - Democratic pickup
New Hampshire 1st CD Prediction: Incumbent Carol Shea-Porter will fall to her unannounced Republican challenger in a +1 (R) favoring district - Republican pickup
New York 11th CD Prediction: Incumbent Michael Grimm (R) will fall to Democrat, Domenic Recchia, in a +2 (R) favoring district - Democratic pickup
New York 19th CD Prediction: Incumbent Chris Gibson (R) will fall to Democrat, Sean Eldridge, in a +1 (D) favoring district - Democratic pickup
Ohio 14th CD Prediction: Incumbent David Joyce (R) will fall to Democrat, Michael Wager, in a +4 (R) favoring district - Democratic pickup
Pennsylvania 8th CD Prediction: Incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick (R) will fall to Democrat, Kevin Strouse, in a +1 (R) favoring district - Democratic pickup
Utah 4th CD Prediction: Incumbent Jim Matheson (D) will fall to Republican, Mia Love, in a +16 (R) favoring district - Republican pickup